BTC’s road to $100K, and what to expect next
More momentum could drive BTC past the six-figure price mark — albeit not without volatility
Arsri80/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
It seems fitting that bitcoin’s rise above $103,000 came in the final month of a groundbreaking year for the asset.
You already know about the first US spot bitcoin ETFs in January and Trump’s election win a month ago. Then there was the president-elect’s selection this week of Paul Atkins as SEC chair (who many deem to be a crypto advocate). And Fed Chair Jerome Powell even recently compared bitcoin to gold.
The fact that gold’s market cap is still nine times larger than bitcoin’s (about $18T to $2T) “should offer additional insight into how much more room there is for bitcoin to grow from current levels,” LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said in an email.
Momentum driving BTC past the psychological six-figure price mark can beget more momentum — albeit not without volatility.
“It not only validates the long-term belief of the community but also signals to institutions, corporations, sovereign funds, skeptics and sidelined investors alike that bitcoin has entered a new phase of adoption and recognition as a store of value and a transformative asset class,” according to 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena.
Bitcoin had dipped to about $99,000 by 3 pm ET on Thursday.
A key next target is $110,000, Mena added, citing Deribit data that shows the majority of Jan. 31, 2025 call option contract volume is concentrated at that price level.
Industry watchers have also pointed to BTC’s history of price swings to temper mania from the most bullish of bulls.
After the early years of bitcoin, the road to $100,000 included a rise to $18,000 in 2017 followed by a plummet to around $4,000 the following year. A surge to nearly $70,000 in late-2021 was followed by a severe downward move to $16,000 in 2022.
While optimism is high that the Trump Administration and a crypto-friendly Congress will help spur crypto regulatory and legislative clarity, Nansen principal research analyst Aurelie Barthere said those might not pan out as expected.
He said: “Once we witness the first policies and decisions from the Trump Administration in January, there could be some risk of disappointed expectations, especially if the agenda prioritizes tariff and immigration-related policies first.”
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
- Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
- Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
- Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
- The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.
