As BTC nears $100K, keep an eye on Thanksgiving
Holiday gatherings are often a time investors discuss their investment journeys and gains, sparking curiosity
Dragon Claws/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
Bitcoin hit about $99,500 overnight before dipping below $97,300 a few hours later. The asset’s price was right around $99,350 at 2 pm ET.
On the cusp of $100,000, what will happen after BTC hits that level? Or if it doesn’t break through that in the short term?
As you know by now, nobody knows for sure. But I caught up (again) with Federico Brokate, head of 21Shares’ US business. He also helped BlackRock launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in January while he led iShares’ business strategy in the Americas.
The main takeaways? Well for one, the six-figure mark represents “a psychological barrier for markets” and a price target investors have been eyeing since the last crypto bull run, Brokate explained.
He noted, too, that BTC’s price last week quickly rose another 3-5% after hitting the $90,000 mark with enough volume — a scenario that could happen again at $100,000.
“If the barrier isn’t decisively broken by Thanksgiving, we could expect to see prices come down 15-20% — a correction that would test the $80,000 support level and wash out leveraged and low-conviction players,” Brokate told me.
Reaching the six-figure level would mean “greater short-term volatility as orders are filled, options liquidate and liquidity providers fulfill ETF block order requests,” he said, adding: “It wouldn’t be surprising to see some drawdown in the coming months.”
Outside of BTC, Brokate noted that altcoin markets often surge after bitcoin establishes a price plateau. This comes as investors tend to rotate to what are viewed as “higher-risk, higher-reward opportunities.” Perhaps that happens in late Q1, or Q2, the 21Shares executive posed.
While solana (SOL) just reached a new price peak at roughly $263, ether (ETH) remains about 32% off its November 2021 high. XRP was up about 65% from a week ago, as of 2 pm ET Friday.
Finally, Thanksgiving might mean more than turkey and football this year. After all, Brokate reminded, holiday gatherings are often a time investors discuss their investment journeys and gains, sparking curiosity.
Brokate recalled that in 2017, BTC hovered in the $6,000-to-$9,000 range before surging to about $16,000 after Thanksgiving.
He added: “We may see a similar move this year.”
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
- Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
- Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
- Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
- The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.
