Mantle

Casey Wagner

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced sweeping new global tariffs that will place a 10% levy on almost all imports, plus higher rates on about 60 countries the administration says have the highest trade deficits with the US.&nbsp;



Among those countries, China will be hit with a 34% reciprocal tariff, the European Union 20%, Vietnam 46% and Taiwan 32%.



“Foreign nations will finally be asked to pay for the privilege of access to our market, the biggest market in the world,” Trump said Wednesday afternoon during remarks from the White House Rose Garden. “We&#8217;re right now the biggest market in the world.”&nbsp;



Trump said his team determined the “worst offenders” by considering levies, “currency manipulation and trade barriers” foreign nations place on US exports. China, Trump claimed Wednesday, charges a total of 67% on US imports. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">They made a chart. <a href="https://t.co/hQQlDj7Rs3">pic.twitter.com/hQQlDj7Rs3</a>&mdash; Ben Strack 🟪 (@strack_ben) <a href="https://twitter.com/strack_ben/status/1907530578754163002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



In an effort to bring automobile manufacturing back onshore, a 25% tariff on car imports — which Trump first announced last week — will go into effect tonight at midnight. The administration says additional levies on auto parts will be rolled out in May.&nbsp;



“Jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country, and you see it happening already,” Trump said. “We will supercharge our domestic industrial base, we will pry open foreign markets and break down foreign trade barriers.”&nbsp;



Critics of the policies say tariff hikes will lead to higher prices and reduced consumer spending, which in turn will lower business expansion and investments. Analysts from Goldman Sachs raised their <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-to-unveil-tariff-policy-plans">recessionary odds</a> for the next year from 20% to 35% earlier this week.&nbsp;



After a relatively flat day of trading Wednesday as investors waited for this afternoon’s announcement, the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed in the green, gaining 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Futures, however, dipped into the red. The S&amp;P 500 slipped almost 2% in after-hours while the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.7%.&nbsp;



Bitcoin and ether, on the other hand, fell in the moments after Trump’s announcement, losing about 2.4%.



Markets had likely priced in reciprocal tariffs between 15% and 20%, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said Wednesday.&nbsp;



The Trump administration was tight-lipped about the policies leading up to Wednesday’s announcement. The president was still finalizing plans late Tuesday evening, according to people familiar.&nbsp;



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US equities, cryptocurrencies fall on Trump’s sweeping global tariffs 

Jeff Albus

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Solana is waffling around the $130 mark after a dip under $123 earlier this week. And we seem to be trailing the broader market hokey-pokey around the ongoing <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-to-unveil-tariff-policy-plans">Trump tariff drama</a> and bitcoin&#8217;s rejection below $88k.&nbsp;



But a more compelling story might be bubbling beneath the surface of this modest recovery.



Solana has been in cooldown mode for a while now, following its record-breaking Q1 surge driven by election euphoria and memecoin speculation. Daily network fees have <a href="https://defillama.com/fees/solana">plunged</a> more than 97% from their January peak. Transaction volume has <a href="https://defillama.com/chain/Solana?chainTokenVolume=true">cratered</a>. Even the retail-magnet pump.fun is <a href="https://dune.com/queries/4322646/7260251">fatigued</a>: Fewer than 1% of new tokens now reach tradable status, and bonding levels are at their lowest since January.



But the cooldown isn&#8217;t a collapse. Not yet. It looks more like a recomposition, actually. The memecoin tide is receding in the wake of fresh Solana protocols like Zeta Market&#8217;s <a href="https://x.com/bulletxyz_/status/1899941207155114495">dedicated</a> <a href="https://x.com/bulletxyz_/status/1899941207155114495">trading layer</a> Bullet, BlackRock&#8217;s <a href="https://x.com/Blockworks_/status/1900279952630579432">tokenized $BUIDL fund</a>, and Solana-based Zebec Network&#8217;s <a href="https://x.com/Zebec_HQ/status/1905268164159553627">crypto debit card</a>. None of these are really designed for peak virality. They&#8217;re just useful. It&#8217;s crazy, I know, but they actually have genuine utility. Madness.



Meanwhile, Solana ETF filings from Fidelity and Franklin Templeton are <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-exchange-etf-event-vegas">advancing</a>. Institutional futures products <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sol-futures-etfs-to-launch">are live</a>. BlackRock is onboarding real-world dollars. Solana&#8217;s uptime is still <a href="https://status.solana.com/uptime">perfect</a>. Validator diversity is holding. It&#8217;s actually wild that the price hasn&#8217;t caught up with all the good news yet.



Technically, SOL is hanging on to a key support zone. Recent price drawdowns mirror the drop in activity, even as the foundation underneath looks sturdier and sturdier. The only thing that&#8217;s really changed is that the speculative froth is gone. But what&#8217;s left behind is evidence of structural integrity.



Now, all we need is the façade: tools, platforms, utilities and apps that solve real problems, but which wear the same chaotic, meme-dripping, degen-vibe game-feel that brought the whole world to Solana in the first place. The pipes are ready; we just need to get the milk and honey flowing.



My best guess is that the next up cycle will belong to whoever figures out how to make actual usefulness feel like irreverent mischief.



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Post meme-ism: Solana’s quiet pivot to utility

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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We already revisited the Dan Tapiero quote about an imminent <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ipo-boom-etoro-kraken">“crypto IPO, M&amp;A, SPAC boom.”</a> And I wrote about the possible <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ma-mergers-feeding-frenzy-kraken">“feeding frenzy”</a> coming on the M&amp;A side.&nbsp;



Then late yesterday, Circle, the issuer of stablecoin USDC, laid out <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-files-s1-ahead-of-ipo">plans for an IPO</a>.&nbsp;



&#8220;The confluence of traditional financial infrastructure and blockchain innovation, as exemplified by companies like Circle, presents compelling opportunities for institutional investors,” Offchain Labs’ Ira Auerbach said in a statement.&nbsp;



It seems <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-stablecoins-bullish-institutional-das">optimism around stablecoin growth</a> (and the potential for legislation) would signal high interest in Circle. Not to mention the potential for the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoins-tokenization-blackrock-galaxy-das#">broader tokenization segment</a>.



But it’s worth noting that while Circle’s 2024 revenue was $1.7 billion, it paid $908 million in distribution costs to Coinbase.&nbsp;



Circle’s net income for last year was $156 million. Its competitor Tether, meanwhile, <a href="https://tether.io/news/tether-hits-13-billion-profits-for-2024-and-all-time-highs-in-u-s-treasury-holdings-usdt-circulation-and-reserve-buffer-in-q4-2024-attestation/">reported</a> a profit of $13 billion in 2024.&nbsp;



Looking at another publicly-traded crypto company: Coinbase’s 2024 net income was $2.6 billion (on $6.6 billion in revenue). Meaning Circle’s net profit margin was nearly five times less than Coinbase’s, Dom Kwok <a href="https://x.com/dom_kwok/status/1907416370746102008">pointed out</a> on X. Kwok, a former analyst at Blackstone and Goldman Sachs, added: “If the Fed lowers rates later this year (as expected), Circle&#8217;s metrics will only weaken further.”&nbsp;



After all, the S-1 notes that 99% of Circle’s revenues come from reserve interest income, which is sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates.



Circle explains in the filing that the emergence of yield-bearing digital assets “represents an additional source of competition, particularly in light of the current high interest rate environment.”



Hence, probably, why Circle acquired tokenized money market fund issuer Hashnote to help market participants more easily move <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-hashnote-deal-tokenized-money">between cash and yield</a>. 



There will be plenty to monitor here as to when we could see Circle stock on the New York Stock Exchange, and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circles-valuation-could-top-5b-post-roadshow">at what valuation</a>. Stay tuned.



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Circle plans an IPO, but faces a competitive landscape

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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President Trump is slated to reveal his long-promised reciprocal tariff policies at 4 pm ET from the White House Rose Garden.&nbsp;



Just hours from the event, we still know very little. Trump and his team were working on the plans late into Tuesday evening, according to people familiar.&nbsp;



We do know, though, that Trump in the past has floated imposing additional levies on copper, lumber and pharmaceuticals. I <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/liberation-day-tariffs-us-market-growth">wrote yesterday</a> about why I’m personally most interested in hearing about a copper tariff — the US currently imports about 50% of the amount we use, and the metal is in just about everything.&nbsp;



Trump has also said he plans to slap tariffs greater than or equal to all foreign levies placed on goods other countries import from the US.&nbsp;



White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday that whatever is announced on Wednesday afternoon will go into effect “immediately.”&nbsp;



In addition to the new policies, Trump’s 25% tariff on imported cars will start just after midnight tonight. Imported auto parts will be taxed at the same rate starting in May. S&amp;P Global estimates that roughly 46% of cars sold in the US in 2024 were imported.&nbsp;



Ahead of the auto tariffs, General Motors on Tuesday announced that its Q1 sales were more than 16% higher than last year, a signal Americans may be planning their car purchases before prices increase.&nbsp;



It’s worth noting that while the discourse around tariffs has unsurprisingly revolved around the potential impact on consumer prices, the policies could also have a significant effect on growth.&nbsp;



Goldman Sachs this week upped its odds of a recession in the next year from 20% to 35%. Analysts said tariffs are expected to lead to a slowdown in business expansion and investments.&nbsp;



To be fair, the Trump administration has admitted that tariff policies are going to cause some “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/business/economy/trump-recession-tariffs-inflation.html">short-term pain</a>.” But they still maintain that these levies are the way to bring back domestic manufacturing. Those against the plan <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trumps-tariffs-cause-recession-experts/story?id=120329597">argue</a> that it could take years for businesses to bring operations back onshore and the impact on consumer spending may have long-term effects on the economy.&nbsp;



Liberation Day comes after Republicans held on to two open Florida House seats in Tuesday’s special elections, although the party won with a much narrower margin than they had in November. This could present some challenges for the GOP come midterms.&nbsp;



As Americans (and the world) await what Trump will say, several lawmakers on Capitol Hill are already playing defense. Former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell has joined Democrat Sen. Tim Kaine’s efforts to block Trump’s tariffs on Canada.&nbsp;



In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump called McConnell and other Republicans who have said they’ll back Kaine’s resolution “disloyal.” The president added that those supporting the effort to block his Canadian tariffs are “playing with the lives of the American people” as the levies are aimed at curbing fentanyl trafficking.&nbsp;



Alongside McConnell are fellow Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul. We’ll be watching for any additional Congressional efforts to block tariffs after Trump’s announcement today.



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Trump gears up to unveil ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs 

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Babylon Labs has released details of Genesis, the first-ever bitcoin-secured layer-1 blockchain. 



Based on Babylon’s own bitcoin staking technology, the chain marks a turning point in bitcoin’s utility. Genesis has the potential to turn BTC from a passive store-of-value asset (derided as a “pet rock”) into a cornerstone for proof-of-stake (PoS) security and liquidity.



Ancient Babylon’s Code of Hammurabi, one of the oldest recorded legal codes (circa 1754 BC), introduced the concept of codified, public and enforceable rules with clear penalties for violations. It marked a transition from informal justice (based on trust, status or brute force) to a formal system of accountability.



Babylon’s bitcoin staking introduces a modern crypto-native parallel, codifying slashing-based accountability into bitcoin staking.



Since Babylon’s August 2024 launch of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-babylon-btc-staking-deposits">Phase 1</a>, the protocol has attracted as much as 57.5k BTC staked in self-custodial contracts. It <a href="https://defillama.com/">ranks</a> third by staking market cap — behind <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/lido">Lido</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/eigenlayer">EigenLayer</a>, which currently have about $4.4 billion in assets. Despite this impressive figure, it represents just 0.27% of bitcoin’s total supply.



Instead of relying on custodial bridges or centralized intermediaries, the Babylon protocol enables native BTC holders to secure PoS networks without ever relinquishing control of their coins. That focus on self-custody and trust-minimized participation appeals to long-time Bitcoiners like Spencer Yang, co-founder of Fractal Bitcoin.



“Bitcoin OGs really care about custodying [their] own keys, having control over [their] own financial decisions,” Yang <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UM4V2PLCPFQ">said</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The “three facets”</h2>



Babylon Genesis functions as:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>A bitcoin-secured L1 — built on CometBFT from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cosmos-ecosystem-changes-after-skip-acquisition">the Cosmos stack</a> with dual-quorum staking: 100 validators staking BABY (the L1’s native token) plus 60 BTC-staked finality providers. The network boasts hourly Bitcoin timestamping for fast unbonding and protection against <a href="https://github.com/slowmist/Cryptocurrency-Security-Audit-Guide/blob/main/Blockchain-Common-Vulnerability-List.md#long-range-attack">long-range attacks</a>.</li>



<li>A control plane — Genesis coordinates security and staking information across what it terms BSNs, or Bitcoin Secured Networks. BSNs use Genesis for timestamping, finality and protocol integration, sharing revenue back to Genesis participants.</li>



<li>A BTC liquidity hub — with DEXs, restaking, vaults and, in a subsequent phase, BTC LST minting. Genesis will compete as a prime venue for BTCFi, with other trust-minimized bridge destinations building on BitVM.</li>
</ul>



Babylon certainly has some narrative winds in its sails. “Babylon Genesis feels like something that could change the entire system,” <a href="https://x.com/jack_mfer/status/1907381085761134849">wrote</a> @jack_mfer on X. “Every network that connects to Genesis benefits from Bitcoin’s strength.”



Dozens of other protocols and teams have rallied around the Babylon ecosystem, such as:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Liquid staking: PumpBTC, Chakra, Solv, Acorn, Bedrock</li>



<li>Custodians/wallets: Binance, Anchorage, Cobo, OKX</li>



<li>Bitcoin-secured networks: Osmosis, Sei, Nomic, Manta, Corn, Cosmos Hub</li>



<li>Finality providers: Kiln, Chorus One, P2P, Figment, Blockdaemon</li>



<li>Infra: AltLayer, Ankr, Satlayer</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Next up: A trust-minimized bridge</h2>



To fulfill its role as a liquidity hub, Babylon is building a trust-minimized bridge between Bitcoin and Genesis, with research grounded in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-scaling-price-evolution">BitVM2</a>. The goal is to remove the need for trusted multisigs in BTC bridging and enable native staking for apps and other networks without needing upgrades to Bitcoin Core, explained Babylon co-founder David Tse.



“Rather than waiting for protocol changes, simply leverage Bitcoin&#8217;s existing capabilities in novel ways,” Tse <a href="https://x.com/dntse/status/1906695727201620299">said</a>, “replacing trusted committees with bitcoin-backed stakers who face automatic slashing for misbehavior.”



The ambitions of Babylon Genesis thus go beyond being a proof-of-concept bitcoin-secured chain, but extend to a Bitcoin-native coordination layer designed around trustless interoperability, liquidity and PoS security with crypto’s premier asset.



Bitcoin’s market cap is larger than all other crypto assets combined, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKUvoJsKfxY">noted</a> Dan Held, general partner at Asymmetric. “If we unlock any sort of DeFi activity on top of Bitcoin, that would soon be larger than all other DeFi combined.”



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Babylon Genesis to launch as a Bitcoin-secured L1 and liquidity hub

Kate Irwin

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">subscribe</a>.



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When it comes to crypto gaming, is there any point in taking on the risk that comes with building a “AAA” game — or should studios just focus on simpler mobile games with dynamic economies instead?&nbsp;



Crypto founders at Ronin and Avalanche clashed over the issue on X this week.&nbsp;



In light of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gunzilla-token-letter-speculation-off-grid">Off The Grid</a>’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gunzilla-games-gun-token-launch">GUN token launch</a> on Monday and perceived success as a blockchain game thus far, Ava Labs founder and CEO Emin Gün Sirer declared: “AVAX won gaming for sure. If you’re developing a AAA game, there’s only one proven platform to build on.”



“AAA” is a gaming industry buzzword with no official definition attached, but it typically refers to games that cost $25 million to $40 million or more to make and come from larger studios with substantial marketing budgets.&nbsp;



Off The Grid studio Gunzilla Games has its own dedicated, private Avalanche L1 chain called Gunz. The chain is nearing 500 million total transactions since its launch, according to Avascan <a href="https://testnet.avascan.info/blockchain/gunz/home">data</a> as of Wednesday morning.&nbsp;



GUN’s future price will be difficult to predict given the slated long-term unlocks and added supply to come, as some have <a href="https://x.com/RealJonahBlake/status/1906739642176766237">pointed out</a>. The token currently sits at a $32 million market cap, and its price is down 54% from its all-time high. But only 6% of the token’s total supply is currently in circulation.



Ronin, which made a name for itself as a gaming chain with its flagship Axie Infinity back in 2021, has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-gaming-biggest-hurdles">taken a markedly different approach</a> to crypto gaming. They’ve chosen to focus on mobile gameplay and game economies instead of on graphics, allowing them to keep budgets small while making the best games possible given those restrictions.



“AAA Web3 gaming is a waste of money,” <a href="https://x.com/Psycheout86/status/1907329569725481154">wrote</a> Ronin cofounder and chair Aleksander Larsen in response to Sirer on Wednesday morning.



“Come to $RON and let’s figure out the hard economic problems of web3 gaming together. $AVAX is focusing on the wrong thing and the token holders will suffer as a consequence,” Larsen continued, adding: “Congrats on your victory” with a salute emoji.



Is Avalanche focusing on the wrong thing? For one, the chain has other types of games that aren’t “AAA,” like Spellborne, a pixelated magic game.&nbsp;



Then there’s the question of objectives for each game — as well as each one’s target audience. Every crypto game will likely have a substantial cohort of players who are there just to “farm” or extract as much value as possible because of a crypto game’s play-to-earn elements, like <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/pixels-founder-botters-death-threats">Pixels</a> founder Luke Barwikowski has found with his Ronin-based pixelated MMORPG.&nbsp;



But should higher-fidelity graphics be the goal for crypto games — which result in much higher costs and risk?



Two years ago, with the likes of Shrapnel, Off The Grid, and other ambitious projects splashing onto the blockchain gaming scene, pushing for a “AAA” game was trendy. But with VC firms <a href="https://thedrop.beehiiv.com/p/sega-on-sui">pulling back</a> on the inflated funding rounds of the 2021 post-pandemic boom, the number of crypto games with AAA plans has declined significantly since 2020.&nbsp;



Last year, AAA titles made up less than 1% of crypto games, while indies made up over 90% of the total, per Game7 research. That ratio largely matches the broader gaming industry: <a href="https://vginsights.com/insights/article/video-game-insights-2021-market-report">Roughly 98%</a> of Steam games are classified as indie.&nbsp;



Across both crypto gaming and the broader gaming industry, more releasing titles have been indie. This may be due to broader economic factors, including the <a href="https://publish.obsidian.md/vg-layoffs/Archive/2025">waves of mass layoffs</a> and studio shutdowns we’ve seen for years now across the gaming industry.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfTw1aU41wO3PfUzGJaP0Xz2Mui1eUIAjLrHQ63L5sU2ccxsQ2sKUzbZfMsxi8iVt59l7IbNZ4Al3C-suJiDo-7xmtuhYE7NH0BlXwio0DxqVi2YYJbKe-hTNJsz9SoYDz5PXNDtg?key=YbN8Gw90K_EhQaG6kZkwLpgB" alt=""/></figure>



Mobile games also make up a large portion of the broader gaming pie, as <a href="https://www.pocketgamer.biz/mobile-accounts-for-49-of-global-games-market-share-despite-2-revenue-dip/#:~:text=Mobile%20accounts%20for%2049%25%20of,%25%20revenue%20dip%20%7C%20PocketGamer.biz">49% of games</a> are mobile titles, according to data from analytics firm Adjust published last year.



I think there’s substantially less room for multiple “AAA-budget” games in the crypto space specifically because you’re competing with the likes of Call of Duty and Fortnite and require much higher levels of continued capital and revenue. Whether AAA crypto games want to admit it or not, they’re in the same bracket as multibillion-dollar giants like Microsoft and Epic Games when it comes to PC player choice. Call of Duty Black Ops Cold War, for example, released in 2020 and reportedly <a href="https://www.pcgamer.com/games/call-of-duty/call-of-dutys-development-budget-ballooned-by-usd250-million-between-2015-and-2020-to-an-eye-watering-usd700-million/">cost Activision $700 million</a> to make.&nbsp;



Many typical gamers still aren’t going to get behind NFTs in video games, as we saw back in 2021 with smaller titles like the S.T.A.L.K.E.R. franchise. And we’ve seen this many times since with players’ mainly negative response to Ubisoft’s and Square Enix’s respective blockchain gaming endeavors.&nbsp;



Smaller games like mobile titles, however, aren’t at a major advantage. While 83% of mobile games are <a href="https://www.gamesindustry.biz/report-83-of-mobile-games-fail-in-the-three-years-after-launch">expected to fail</a>, those lower-budget games come at a lower cost to studios.



The market has corrected to fit more realistic expectations — including expectations around funding. Can the crypto industry fund more than one AAA game at a time? I’m not sure.



Ronin is doing well in its niche, and Off The Grid is a rare breakout of a game for the blockchain gaming sector.



There’s definitely room for both to succeed — and I think they’ll continue to attract completely different types of gamers to their titles.



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Ronin founder accuses Ava Labs of focusing on the ‘wrong things’

David Canellis

Pete Rizzo

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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This week marks the anniversary of two serendipitous Bitcoin posts from celebrities on opposite ends of the cultural spectrum: Neil deGrasse Tyson and Paris Hilton.



Apex influencer Hilton came first, on April Fool’s Day in 2021. In a brief CNBC <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1OJeexYXx4">interview</a>, Hilton was asked whether she was a bitcoin investor, considering her interest in NFTs.



“Yes! I’m very, very excited about that as well. It’s definitely the future,” she replied. It was near-peak bull market at the time, with the price of bitcoin breaking past $60,000 only two weeks earlier.



“Have you been in bitcoin for a while?”



“Yes.”



“Well, I guess it&#8217;s been a good trade,” joked the interviewer.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">oh no. oh no Bitcoin <a href="https://t.co/VaVSqpjtBQ">pic.twitter.com/VaVSqpjtBQ</a>&mdash; Joseph Young (@iamjosephyoung) <a href="https://twitter.com/iamjosephyoung/status/1377893183481384967?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



One year later, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson was pictured giving two thumbs-up at a rooftop bar along with Bitcoiners Alex Gladstein, <a href="https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1875905143603892262">Saifedean Ammous</a>, and Dan Held.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Tyson expressed curiosity about bitcoin’s resilience, even as its price tumbled alongside global markets shaken by rate hikes, inflation, and geopolitical unrest. Gladstein tweeted:



“Neil asked great questions. One of his first ones was, ‘What if aliens come to earth with much more computing power — couldn’t they mine all the bitcoin?’” Which led to a great Saifedean explanation of the difficulty algorithm.”



What’s clear, looking back, is that these were signposts marking the beginning of the end of Bitcoin’s celebrity era.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Scientist Neil deGrasse Tyson learning about <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> from the best 🙌 <a href="https://t.co/EEasTKcStP">pic.twitter.com/EEasTKcStP</a>&mdash; Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) <a href="https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1510267231032254470?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 2, 2022</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The roots of the celebrity era can be traced to the music industry in late 2013 — also peak bull market — when Snoop Lion (née Snoop Dogg) <a href="https://x.com/snoopdogg/status/407350025677586433">tweeted</a> that he wanted to accept bitcoin for his next album, to be &#8220;delivered by drone.&#8221; The sale never materialized, but the tweet sparked attention from Coinbase and BitPay, both eager to make it happen.



About a week later, Spice Girl Mel B began <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140125122619/https://www.melaniebrown.com/2013/12/09/mel-b-to-accept-bitcoins-via-her-website/">accepting</a> bitcoin for her single “For Once in My Life,” even offering a discount to fans who paid in BTC “due to the extremely low transaction costs of using bitcoins.”



Still, the intent for both Mel B and Snoop Dogg — two of the first celebrities to publicly show interest in Bitcoin — was to experiment with bitcoin as money.



Six months later, 50 Cent raked in 700 BTC (~$400,000) for his 2014 album Animal Ambition, when bitcoin was still trading under $700.



He then forgot about it, only to be reminded by TMZ almost four years later, when a reporter <a href="https://www.tmz.com/2018/01/23/50-cent-made-millions-bitcoin-animal-ambition-album/">pointed</a> out it would’ve been worth between $7 million and $8.5 million. 50 Cent later <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2018/feb/27/50-cent-denies-reports-he-is-a-bitcoin-millionaire">confirmed</a> that the bitcoin was sold immediately upon receipt.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">50 Cent (0.000046 BTC) posted on instagram about making millions of dollars in Bitcoin and forgetting about doing it <a href="https://t.co/fycFbwMaUZ">https://t.co/fycFbwMaUZ</a> <a href="https://t.co/aD6VLj3zfS">pic.twitter.com/aD6VLj3zfS</a>&mdash; Neeraj K. Agrawal (@NeerajKA) <a href="https://twitter.com/NeerajKA/status/955913503080108032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 23, 2018</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Around the same period, Lily Allen revealed that she had been offered “hundreds of thousands of bitcoins” to livestream a concert about 5 years earlier — but had turned it down with a dismissive “as if.” Some celebs clearly strayed too far from Bitcoin, resulting in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kim-kardashian-in-sec-crosshairs-for-ethereummax-promotion">awkward and costly</a> entanglements — the most <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11892491/Gisele-says-blindsided-FTX-failure-trusted-hype-SBF.html">severe</a> of which were ultimately <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/one-year-since-terra">triggered by events</a> that <a href="https://www.nansen.ai/research/blockchain-analysis-the-collapse-of-alameda-and-ftx">occurred</a> only one month after deGrasse Tyson’s thumbs-up picture from April 2022.



If that picture marked the beginning of the end for Bitcoin’s celebrity era, Trump’s recent alignment can be celebrated as the end of the end.&nbsp;



Bitcoin was suddenly no longer a financial quirk, but both bona fide money used by the US President to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4u-L9sS2r4">pay</a> for burgers in bars, and a credible safe-haven asset <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-sovereign-state-era">managed</a> by the Treasury and Commerce secretaries. Any individual celebrity adopting Bitcoin may never be as impressive.



So, what comes next, now that Bitcoin is in its post-celebrity era?&nbsp;



Think of it like music: the “post-” in genres like post-punk signals a turn back toward experimentation. No neater way to bring Bitcoin full circle in the culture than that.



— <a href="https://x.com/dcanellis/">David Canellis</a>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Rizzo’s take, the Bitcoin Historian</h2>



Some celebrities are better price indicators than others.&nbsp;



Patron Saint of Bitcoin Bottoms: Paris Hilton



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfepv6FxDo2ZEuiZjviCCEfGqxnRIv8ZEKi6CxRMAeCSbf2ABTNNv4d7E1_GpOCCD07knPDtSJc8DUIbKkMx5fAu9e4nJNnITEy-kwGBN3YOw_rRtOmcl4AgDBFP34BWYDT9obk3A?key=PVNMjxZsbdy0xg6DokwMECCn" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Paris Hilton with the founders of the failed Ethereum project The DAO (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/jaesonma/photos/futuristic-discussion-with-the-block-chain-disruptors-founders-of-wwwethereumorg/10154189696695120/">2015</a>)</figcaption></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeESQUB6iGEk_rNKaCkSaYZLqSoOWez1704MQKbIgsaFmc7nbJtl16dLW3ckpGyEjw1SU5KfeE4xGkgleV-Mo2-YRNLLM04D34klJymtlksuZrYMUoiPt3Sg2p76DDMXR5n-6fMsA?key=PVNMjxZsbdy0xg6DokwMECCn" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Paris Hilton bullish on NFTs (<a href="https://parishilton.com/nft/">2021</a>)</figcaption></figure>



Patron Saint of Bitcoin Tops: Katy Perry



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1682" height="872" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-99975" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=1682 1682w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-02-at-1.16.41 PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1682px) 100vw, 1682px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Katy Perry posts her “crypto claws” (<a href="https://www.instagram.com/katyperry/p/BeXchJzFkhJ/?hl=en">February 2018</a>)</figcaption></figure>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd_UebgMROYX07_Kcq6AMMlFhwDYd48HPKpL1BEDV0VACYSH7QbM_6WtZayHBx9mS6nkl6frS4GK6R8YDSiPEzA_pVmum95OSJMLu5XWctKgwd0BuJs_59s5yE91hKEV1sLYVAUsA?key=PVNMjxZsbdy0xg6DokwMECCn" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Katy Perry Instagram post (<a href="https://www.instagram.com/katyperry/p/CZ5Qw2-vVoW/?img_index=1">February 2022</a>)</figcaption></figure>



When you see Paris Hilton, buy. When you see Katy Perry, sell. I don’t make the rules.



— Rizzo



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Paris Hilton vs. Katy Perry: Which celebs are bitcoin buy signals?

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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We finally have Circle’s <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000119312525070481/d737521ds1.htm#rom737521_1">S-1</a> and, honestly, it’s just as juicy as I had hoped.&nbsp;



It looks like Circle, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-files-s1-ahead-of-ipo">plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange</a> under ticker CRCL, is aiming for a valuation of around $4 billion to $5 billion.&nbsp;



Some folks — including PitchBook’s Robert Le — have noted that it’s a rather low valuation. In Le’s case, he thinks it could be purposefully low.



Coinbase, when it went public in 2021, kicked off trading with a nearly $100 billion valuation. Obviously, the two companies, while very intertwined, have different business models, so don’t get too excited about Circle getting anywhere near those levels.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Circle earned ~$1.7b revenue in 2024 and paid out $900M+ to <a href="https://twitter.com/coinbase?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@coinbase</a> as a distribution partner That ~$1B going to Coinbase likely comes with little to no cost/opex to serve. At 10x earnings = $10 B mkt cap and likely contributes ~25% of <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24COIN&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$COIN</a> valuation For perspective -… <a href="https://t.co/2Et3yaSgas">pic.twitter.com/2Et3yaSgas</a>&mdash; James Ho (@jamesjho_) <a href="https://twitter.com/jamesjho_/status/1907187974594240647?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Especially if stablecoin legislation is passed.&nbsp;



But the roadshow will be the real test for the stablecoin issuer, Le told me.



“My guess is, if it all goes well, that valuation should push up much higher toward the end of their roadshow. And then that would be a positive signal,” especially if interest is higher than anticipated.&nbsp;



As Wyatt Lonergan of VanEck Ventures noted, the issuer will face questions around the market evolution and what could possibly be the beginning of “stablecoin wars,” which would see everyone, including big banks, look to issue their own stablecoins.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Partner costs are probably the biggest line item to pay attention to, but also the most misunderstood line item, coming out of Circle’s IPO filing. Today, Coinbase takes the lion share of USDC revenue as the primary distribution partner. $900m ish of that $1 billion number.… <a href="https://t.co/z7sFKTJRKw">https://t.co/z7sFKTJRKw</a>&mdash; Wyatt Lonergan (@Wyatt_Lonergan) <a href="https://twitter.com/Wyatt_Lonergan/status/1907191801884102978?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



It’ll “come down to how the market evolves and begins using stablecoins at scale. If that stable is USDC, then they’ll get a strong multiple even as their take rate declines, because the potential markets they can grow into are massive.”



But on the venture capital front, strong demand for the listing could open up a new exit path for crypto investments, and that would be a “shift that might encourage additional capital inflows into crypto startups.”



Circle could — and so far looks to be — just the start of a crypto IPO boom, with others like Kraken, Chainalysis and Fireblocks in the wings. Add in the pick up in M&amp;A activity and the liquidity routes are wide open for a lot of folks.



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Circle’s valuation could top $5B post-roadshow

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I’ve got a dose of optimistic news for you this morning: From a venture capital perspective, the first quarter wasn’t so bad!



Preliminary data from PitchBook suggests that the quarter saw roughly $4.5 billion in VC spending, with half of that coming from Binance’s deal with Abu Dhabi’s MGX. To put that figure into context, we saw a little over $2 billion per quarter last year.



If we continue at this pace — and I know it’s early to say this — we could see spending hit $18 billion. That number is still nowhere near the $33 billion raised back in 2021, but it shows that the sector’s bouncing back, and it’s not looking frothy.



Back in December, PitchBook’s Robert Le told us he wouldn’t be surprised if we saw “multiple” $5 billion quarters and, clearly, we’re not too far off.



He told me that part of the momentum is coming from the larger deals, $100 million or bigger, that we haven’t seen too much of so far this cycle.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeWujWcpvtylZESfIjiXWqcWUsoLWLhWUoxihTHwb0m513yhP9dyKbUfRLAo5C_d0XgsjvZd0Hsa0P5b2tNZynI9NsDb0kRbUCdURtKgQ5yeLMch3pDu4GPj3x27CYqqHEObfzOjg?key=NB0rP1ohR988jmRNVbyn1kF2" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: TIE Terminal</figcaption></figure>



Right now the average deal size in March sits at roughly $60 million, though — looking at the chart above — that’s clearly a jump from the deal sizes we saw last year.



“I think as the mega funds come back to market, we&#8217;re going to expect to see a lot of those larger deals get funded, and that&#8217;s going to really [show in the] amount of venture capital dollars being invested,” he said.



There’s preliminary evidence to support that, too. Le said he’s heard that Katie Haun’s not having a hard time raising $1 billion for two new funds, which was first reported by Fortune. The interest shows that limited partners are looking to invest in some of the so-called mega funds.



“Overall sentiment” is good for crypto VCs across the board, even emerging partners focused on seed or pre-seed funding.



Speaking of those smaller rounds, we might be seeing more of them at the moment, but Le thinks that larger deals will pick up as companies scale; it’s just a matter of where we are in the cycle. Per TIE data, the seed stage round is currently the most active round type.



It should come as absolutely no surprise that Le expects projects focused on institutions to garner the most interest right now.



One thing that’s “great for startups in this space is that these institutions are more likely to partner or buy rather than build internally.” Le expects this to drive a “large chunk of venture funding” going forward.



On the flipside, Le doesn’t think we’re going to see a flock to app-layer spending — anything that serves retail, he clarified.



“The general view is that retail hasn’t come back to the market,” though Le admitted that this mindset might be “short-term thinking.” The “holy grail” for crypto is to integrate retail users who are using crypto apps with real-world value. They’re not going to come in just for the tokens, and some may not even interact with tokens.



In fact, social media projects could potentially be the winners in the sector. Look at Farcaster, for example. Le said the project’s doing an “okay job,” but he wants to see them focus on a larger audience outside of the crypto native crowd.



Given that they raised $150 million last year, he thinks they have the capital to start winning over a broader audience.



Let’s start onboarding.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto&#8217;s hottest networks.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.</li>
</ul>

Venture capital spending topped $4.5B in Q1: PitchBook

AI firm Sentient Labs, founded by Polygon co-founder Sandeep Nailwal and backed by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, is preparing to launch Open Deep Search (ODS), a new framework designed to rival closed-source AI search products such as Perplexity.



ODS aims to boost Sentient Chat’s capabilities, with Sentient co-founder Himanshu Tyagi telling Blockworks that the “goal is to have all these different agents which are building on our models to be integrated there.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">**Why we released ODS: the Open Deep Search framework that outperforms Perplexity** Deep research offerings are most useful of AI agents. These agents answer your queries by consulting multiple data sources and using multiple tools for reasoning over them. The response takes…&mdash; Himanshu Tyagi (@hstyagi) <a href="https://twitter.com/hstyagi/status/1907068387962089981?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



It’s currently limited to select testers, though a full public release is expected in the next few months.



Sentient Chat is the platform in which users can “​​experience not only our models, but all the applications built on model collecting.”&nbsp;



“That&#8217;s why we have both these things going, but our value proposition is just models. So our claim is that even though great models … may come, we are in a sort of age of abundance for the next one to two years, especially because of this very interesting geopolitical play.”



The team designed ODS to be owned by the community, which means it can be modified and allows developers to “build domain-specific plug-ins, private search agents and alternative reward mechanisms,” the press release added.&nbsp;



Sentient is focused on building “loyal” AI models, such as its flagship model Dobby.



When scored against a benchmark called FRAMES, Sentient’s accuracy was higher than both Perplexity’s Sonar Reasoning Pro and GPT-4o Search Preview, according to a press release.&nbsp;



The team wants to make AI more accessible across the board through decentralization. Tyagi told Blockworks that he’s “absolutely” bullish on the intersection of AI and crypto.&nbsp;



“Open-sourcing a framework that outperforms industry leaders like Perplexity throws down the gauntlet to closed-source AI developers while giving developers access to a powerful primitive that frees them to create the applications they’ve always dreamed of,” Tyagi said.



Decentralization is key, he added, because it’s hard to know what centralized entities are missing in terms of data.&nbsp;



“I am very bullish on decentralizing data sources itself” because it solves the problem, he explained.&nbsp;



While some have compared Sentient to Perplexity, Tyagi dismissed this, saying Sentient doesn’t have a direct competitor. Rather, he says the team is more focused on building models.



Currently, there’s a waitlist of nearly two million for Sentient Chat, and roughly 700,000 users of its loyal AI model Dobby.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.</li>
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Peter Thiel-backed Sentient to launch Open Deep Search 

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Miller Whitehouse-Levine, former CEO of the DeFi Education Fund, yesterday announced his latest venture as founder and CEO of the Solana Policy Institute.&nbsp;



Then, this afternoon, Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith said she would become the fledgling non-profit’s first president in May.



The non-profit’s launch and big-name hires in the crypto policy space will grow Solana’s small-ish footprint in Washington DC. The new Institute joins Solana infrastructure venue Jito and venture capital firm Multicoin as the most public Solana organizations doing business in Washington.  



Smith started as CEO of the Blockchain Association — perhaps DC’s most well-known crypto policy organization — in 2018, according to her LinkedIn page. Whitehouse-Levine got his start in crypto policy working under Smith at the Blockchain Association.



“This isn’t goodbye to the industry I love – just a shift in perspective,” Smith said in an X post announcing her departure and new role.



After working at the Blockchain Association, Whitehouse-Levine served as CEO of the DeFi Education Fund from 2021, until a couple weeks ago, when he stepped down to launch the Solana Policy Institute. Whitehouse-Levine only began working on the Institute in mid-January, he told me in an interview.



Whitehouse-Levine said market structure legislation — which the Republican-led House of Representatives is currently <a href="https://www.cryptoinamerica.com/p/house-to-hold-hearing-on-crypto-market?selection=8a48c439-2a4d-4e76-8fde-cffd7a29327a&amp;triedRedirect=true#:~:text=Miller%20Whitehouse-Levine%2C%20the%20founder%20of%20the%20DeFi%20Education%20Fund%20%E2%80%93%20D">working</a> on proposing — is “critically important” for the crypto industry. He balked at listing Solana-specific policies for 2025.&nbsp;



“Our objective is not to establish some regulatory capture or tech-specific policies,” Whitehouse-Levine said.



Still, not everyone looked favorably upon the Solana ecosystem’s foray into the decidedly-not-cypherpunk realm of US federal policy.



“L1s trying to influence politics is the exact opposite kind of energy that brought me and so many others into crypto,” David Hoffman, co-host of the popular Ethereum-leaning podcast Bankless, wrote on X.&nbsp;



But for better or worse, having boots on the ground in DC may be table stakes for blockchains in these heady days for the US crypto industry. Congress has its Bitcoin bulls. Ripple built up its DC infrastructure through years of regulatory battles. 



After a year of dramatic <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/how-solana-became-the-peoples-chain">usage and developer growth</a>, Solana is entering the political fray.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.</li>
</ul>

‘Solana Policy Institute’ nets CEOs of Blockchain Association, DeFi Education Fund

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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US equities slipped early in today’s session on February’s disappointing Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (<a href="https://www.bls.gov/jlt/">JOLTS</a>) report. 



The release shows that job openings continued to drop, while quits also declined. Hiring and firing rates were mostly unchanged. Layoffs, however, were on the rise. 



The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes fell as much as 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, after the report was published.&nbsp;



Job openings came in at 7.56 million — a four-year low — compared with a projected 7.63 million. Additional DOGE-related layoffs and slowdowns in federal hiring are likely not included in February’s figures.&nbsp;



Odds of a May interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve ticked up slightly on the report. Those odds now sit at 15.2%, per data from CME Group.&nbsp;



Friday’s March employment report will give markets, and central bankers, a better look at current labor market conditions. If inflation continues to inch higher and the employment situation deteriorates further, the current pause may not last much longer.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Tracking Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.</li>
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US equities slip after job openings disappointment

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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The countdown to President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” is on, and the White House remains tight-lipped about what will be in his tariff announcement tomorrow.&nbsp;



Bulls are optimistic Trump will put an end to the back-and-forth trade policies that have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tariff-trade-overshadows-earnings-season">unnerved markets</a> since he took office. The logic goes: No matter what the levies actually are, at least the policies will be set in stone.



I’m less certain tomorrow will bring, well, certainty. Trump yesterday hinted that he would be open to negotiations with foreign nations, so the pattern — in which harsh and sweeping policies are announced, then either <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-revokes-colombia-tariff-threat">quickly walked back</a> or delayed — may continue after all.&nbsp;



Most of the conversation around tariffs has been about how higher levies will impact consumer prices (i.e. inflation and Fed policy). But the bigger impact of tariffs is arguably that doing business with the US is going to get more expensive, which in turn is bad for growth.&nbsp;



Trump and his team maintain that short-term pain is to be expected, and they say it’s a small price to pay for bringing manufacturing back to the US.&nbsp;



Tomorrow’s announcement will likely focus on global reciprocal tariffs, which we’ll be watching. But personally, I’m most interested in seeing if the administration targets copper imports.&nbsp;



The US currently produces about half the amount of copper it consumes annually, meaning roughly 1 million metric tons are imported. Copper is virtually in everything: wiring, plumbing, motors, medical devices, personal electronics — you get the picture.&nbsp;



“Dr. Copper” may be a dated economic indicator, but expect to see the metal dominating headlines should tariffs come down the line.



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</ul>

What ‘Liberation Day’ could mean for US equities, growth

Stablecoin issuer Circle has taken a step toward going public.



Circle plans to list its stock on the New York Stock Exchange pending SEC approval, a Tuesday filing shows. It would trade under the ticker CRCL.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“We think that we can create a new defining internet platform company that is built on the internet financial system,” Circle wrote in its S-1 — a form used to register securities offerings with the SEC. “And we believe that we are still in the very early stages in the development of this new financial system.”&nbsp;



Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire said that the stablecoin firm’s journey is complex, having to navigate an “evolving ecosystem where innovative technology and highly regulated, legacy financial services are intersecting in ways that will give rise to challenges and uncertainties.”&nbsp;



Allaire added: “Building a new internet financial system, creating major new infrastructure for money and economic activity, shaping and responding to policy, and operating this infrastructure in a complex global macro environment — well, it’s hard.”



The filing represents the first time Circle’s finances are available for public review.



Circle reports minting roughly $504 billion of USDC and redeeming about $464 billion of USDC from Jan. 1, 2021 to Dec. 31, 2024 — “redemptions that have always been one-for-one with the US dollar,” the company wrote.&nbsp;



Adjusted earnings before income tax, depreciation or amortization (EBITDA) for 2024 came out to $284 million, per the filing.&nbsp;&nbsp;



In the risk factors section of the filing, Circle warned that it operates in a “rapidly changing and highly competitive industry, and our results of operations and future prospects depend in part on the continued growth of the Circle stablecoin network, our ability to monetize the Circle stablecoin network, and our ability to innovate and create successful new products and services and improve existing products and services.”



Risk factor sections are normal in these types of SEC filings.&nbsp; Circle’s filing comes about a week after trading platform eToro filed for an IPO.



10T Holdings CEO Dan Tapiero said at last month’s Digital Asset Summit that he’s expecting “a crypto IPO, M&amp;A, SPAC boom” <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ipo-boom-etoro-kraken">in the coming months</a>.&nbsp;



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Circle files S-1 ahead of long-awaited IPO

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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You’ve heard again and again about the crypto industry “maturing.” More M&amp;A deals are likely to be an ongoing byproduct.



The quarterly number of M&amp;As in crypto is building, reaching a record level during the first three months of 2025. While momentum could snowball from here, the economy’s stability remains a wild card.&nbsp;



There were 62 crypto M&amp;A transactions in Q1, according to advisory firm Architect Partners — up from 59 deals in the final quarter of 2024.&nbsp;



Each of those totals is nearly double that of Q3 2024 (33 deals). The end of 2024, of course, had lots of crypto optimism: Donald Trump’s election <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-declared-president-2024-election">win</a>, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-sec-crypto-task-force">regulatory</a> progress/promises, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-actions-timeline">a softening SEC</a>, and rising crypto prices.



“I see larger financial players stepping in to add crypto platforms, markets and custodians to their already-diversified financial services offerings, now that the risk of negative outcomes is greatly reduced,” Baker Botts partner Samuel Dibble told me.



During Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit last month, 10T Holdings CEO Dan Tapiero alluded to an M&amp;A boom coming alongside <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-ipo-boom-etoro-kraken">an expected pick-up</a> in crypto IPOs.&nbsp;



The Q1 crypto M&amp;A activity was unprecedented in more ways than one, noted Architect Partners founder Eric Risley. Aside from the record deal count, there were seven transactions over $100 million and the largest in crypto history: Kraken&#8217;s $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader.&nbsp;&nbsp;



So-called “bridge transactions” — made between crypto and non-crypto companies — will remain a theme going forward, Risley said. The Kraken buy was a bit atypical, given it was a crypto exchange that acquired a traditional foreign exchange and futures business.&nbsp;&nbsp;



The Kraken-NinjaTrader deal also touches on another trend likely to continue — companies seeking out regulatory compliance and licensing.&nbsp;&nbsp;



“NinjaTrader is registered with the CFTC and has a lot of regulatory ‘stamps of approval’ that acquirers see as a fast track to expanding — or simply bolting on — crypto capabilities to their existing businesses,” Dibble noted.



Related to that, Dibble said he expects more non-US companies swooping in to acquire US-licensed operators to quicken business plans in what is now a more attractive market.&nbsp;



“We will see what ultimately unfolds, but I think it has all the signs of being a feeding frenzy,” Dibble noted.



Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said on the company’s earnings call last week that a lot of private crypto firms probably want to sell.



“They see [TradFi] companies coming in with big balance sheets,” he noted. “And most crypto businesses, fortunately or unfortunately, are tied to the overall index of crypto prices.”



Indeed, economic uncertainty is the counter to a pro-crypto Trump administration, Risley argued. Crypto price performance has proven to be highly correlated with traditional assets, which have taken a hit given tariff unknowns and even the possibility of a recession.&nbsp;“The state of the global economy matters, and crypto will be buffeted by economic weakness if it develops,” Risley said. “Economically stressed market participants simply withdraw or take less risk.”



He added: “Skew toward optimism. But perhaps not as strongly, as the economic and foreign policy uncertainties have emerged.”



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‘Feeding frenzy’ possible as crypto M&A picks up

This is a segment from The Drop newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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The shooter game Off The Grid has faced some disapproval — and some praise — over a purported confidential letter.



The letter in question was reportedly emailed to Gunzilla Games’ private investors in regard to its GUN token that became tradeable on Binance this week. GUN launched on Monday and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gunzilla-games-gun-token-launch">hit a $68 million</a> market cap within hours of launch, but that number has since fallen to $40 million.&nbsp;



The <a href="https://x.com/pixiekate13/status/1906777971005829541">letter</a> references a SAFT, or a Simple Agreement for Future Tokens, that means investors gave the company money upfront for tokens at a later, future date.&nbsp;



The copy-pasted text of the letter was posted on X yesterday by a crypto trader and got over 115,000 views in less than a day. The larger post also included the trader’s scathing criticism of the decision. We don’t know more about the specifics of the SAFT yet, though.&nbsp;



The supposed text of that email also references a change to GUN’s vesting tokenomics — and offers investors a chance for a refund if they don’t want to agree to the new terms.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeRnExDMneGra87-nxiF_LMsC_Rqwi-NJsDLFab0L7gsGEMhBxWcl4X8UOhP55BLz7hCXmV2XUrt7RsViNNND1emY-lX02ZBLAH-Yfmy8zvJZcxTLBVe7y470pA8LDZwY9Up6OyUw?key=eiHP8XU0o4ADlGCoXjX4cQe7" alt=""/></figure>



What exactly might these changes be? The trader who leaked the purported letter, Grail.eth, <a href="https://x.com/graildoteth/status/1906737689191473480">claims</a> seed round investors were supposed to get 5% of their GUN tokens unlocked on launch day, while strategic round investors were supposed to see 2% of their tokens unlock on launch.&nbsp;



According to the public GUN whitepaper, the strategic round is seeing 0% of tokens unlocked on launch. The Private A and B rounds have been granted the same. This means these groups’ tokens won’t be unlocked for at least a year because their tokens have a 12-month cliff, with 18 months of vesting.



Some traders on Twitter speculate that the changes may be in order to fund the token’s listing on Binance, though this has not been confirmed by Gunzilla or Binance.&nbsp;



&#8220;We do not charge listing fees to projects listing on Binance,” a Binance spokesperson tells Blockworks. “Regardless, deposits from project teams are refundable and designed to help protect users by ensuring that projects are serious about building their projects, keeping them alive and continuing to build after listing on Binance. The deposit also serves to help protect users in situations where projects harm them by failing to deliver on their commitments.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfy0oO4-u2jb-Gae6lELR0Rmlgzr6ycjF5jtd-DhwFlZ0tnU50XGDHoi7LWhAA_AuNfm7aku0Da3TTDeYBxB0h4P_qwa-JXtnkxtrN8qAWS710KnGqEZ1-BdX_Og3SHF0rB4KYmlw?key=eiHP8XU0o4ADlGCoXjX4cQe7" alt=""/></figure>



Others have <a href="https://x.com/0xAkina_/status/1906731320849641653">criticized</a> GUN’s tokenomics for allotting a significant amount to investors in the first place.&nbsp;



But not everyone’s seeing these tokenomics in a negative light.&nbsp;



I’m personally a fan of any project that makes investors wait longer to unlock their tokens. The “dump on retail” price action isn’t fun for anyone, and it can kill excitement around a new project fast if it happens shortly after a token launches.&nbsp;



“A rare instance where the project chooses its users over VCs,” <a href="https://x.com/avery_bartlett/status/1906738335428587882">wrote</a> Ava Labs Marketing Lead Avery Bartlett in response to the post with the letter, while also admitting he understood the criticism around it (Gunzilla is using its own Avalanche L1).



In a DM, Bartlett told Blockworks: “The people I know didn’t get [a letter]. I got nodes on secondary and didn’t get it,” suggesting validator investors did not see a change to their tokenomics.



Theodore Agranat, Gunzilla’s Director of Web3, told Blockworks he was “not sure” when asked about the letter’s legitimacy.



“I do know that whatever letter was sent out had [a] confidentiality clause attached to it. So not sure,” he said, adding that he would speak with his team.



Agranat’s response indicates a letter was sent confidentially — we just don’t know with 100% certainty if this copy-pasted text matches it.



When Blockworks reached out a day later to follow up regarding the letter, Agranat did not respond by time of publication.&nbsp;



Blockworks has reached out to Gunzilla for additional comment.



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MantleMNT

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